Green Bay is 1-2 and just lost its home opener by three scores for the first time since 2012. The problem is not that the Packers are playing scared exactly. It is that they keep choosing the safe thing on first down and then have no good options left.
The numbers that explain it
EPA means expected points added. It measures whether a play left you better or worse off than where you started. Here is Green Bay through the first stretch of the season:
- 8th in dropback EPA on early downs. When they throw on first and second, it works.
- 30th on third and fourth downs. When they throw late, it does not.
- 31st in rush EPA on early downs.
- 32nd in rush EPA on late downs. Dead last.
Read those together and the picture is not subtle. The thing that works is the thing they do least, and the thing that does not work is the thing they keep calling.
How the trap closes
Matt LaFleur runs the ball on first and second down. The runs are going nowhere, so the Packers face third and long constantly.
On third and long the defense knows a pass is coming. It can rush four, drop seven, and tee off on the quarterback.
So Jordan Love spends his afternoons in the worst version of his job, throwing into coverage that is expecting it, behind a line that is protecting on obvious passing downs. Then people watch that and conclude Love is the problem.
The early-down passing number says otherwise. Eighth in the league is not a quarterback problem.
The personnel piece
There is a fair defense of LaFleur here.
With Josh Jacobs out, the roster does not have what the run-first plan requires. A scheme built on establishing the run needs someone who can establish it.
Green Bay does have the passing weapons for a different approach. Using them means a change in mentality, and coaches who have won with an identity are slow to abandon it.
Thursday
The Falcons put up 35. Michael Penix went 13 of 15 across the middle two quarters. Drake London had 194 yards and Bijan Robinson 213.
Green Bay scored 14. It scored 22 against Minnesota in Week 1 and 20 against the Jets in Week 2. The trend line goes one direction.
The BeezLoop Take
Scared is the wrong word and it matters, because it points at the players. Nothing about Jordan Love’s early-down numbers suggests a quarterback playing frightened. Eighth in the league throwing on first and second down is a man doing his job well in the situations where he is allowed to.
The accurate word is stubborn. LaFleur has an identity, that identity produced a lot of wins, and he is running it with a roster that cannot execute it while the personnel who could win a different way stand on the field waiting. Thirty-second in rush EPA on late downs is not bad luck across a sample this size. It is a plan that stopped working and a coach who has not adjusted.
That is a fixable problem, which is the optimistic part nobody says out loud. Green Bay is not short on talent and Love is not broken. Everything in those splits points to a coaching decision rather than a personnel cliff, and coaching decisions can change on a Wednesday. A team with the eighth-best early-down passing offense that starts throwing on early downs is a different team by Week 6.
The counterargument deserves respect. Abandoning the run entirely with Jacobs out invites a defense to pin its ears back on every snap, and a one-dimensional offense in December in Wisconsin is its own kind of failure. LaFleur is not stupid and he is not protecting his ego for fun; he is trying to preserve balance he does not currently have the players to create.
But at some point the numbers stop being an argument and start being a verdict. The Packers have now been told by three games what works and what does not. Continuing to call the thing ranked 32nd is not patience. It is a choice, and the people who paid for home opener tickets watched what it cost.
The question
If your passing game is 8th on early downs and your running game is 32nd on late downs, what possible reason is there to keep running on first? And how many more losses before that becomes a question about the coach rather than the plan?
Related: the Falcons put 35 on Green Bay Thursday night, and Jaxson Dart is out for the Giants’ season.
Sources: A to Z Sports · NBC Sports Pro Football Talk · Packers.com
