The International Energy Agency’s latest quarterly outlook points to a striking divergence: global EV sales are on pace to hit roughly 23 million in 2026, close to 30% of all new cars sold worldwide, with nearly 90 countries posting annual EV sales increases as gasoline and diesel prices climb. In the United States, the opposite is happening, with EV sales down 23% year over year as of April.
The driver behind the global surge is largely the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran, which has disrupted an estimated 20% of global oil supply and pushed fuel prices sharply higher worldwide. In Europe, EV sales rose nearly 30% year over year; in Asia-Pacific excluding China, sales jumped 80%; in Latin America, sales climbed 75% over the same period last year. Drivers in dozens of countries are shifting to electric platforms in direct response to the volatility at the pump.
The U.S. market is moving in the other direction for a mix of reasons distinct from the rest of the world. Policy changes have scaled back federal EV incentives, average U.S. EV transaction prices remain well above $50,000, and America’s public charging network, particularly Level 2 infrastructure away from major highway corridors, remains inconsistent enough to discourage buyers who don’t have reliable home charging. Rather than trading up to an EV, many American households facing their own cost-of-living squeeze are instead simply absorbing higher prices at the pump.
The result is a rare split in a normally synchronized global auto market: a war-driven oil shock is accelerating the EV transition almost everywhere except the country most directly involved in the conflict driving it.
