Two years after Latino voters helped put Donald Trump back in the White House, most of them now say he’s doing a bad job. In a new NBC News/Telemundo poll, just 27% of Latino registered voters approve of Trump. 69% disapprove.
With a month to go before the midterms, they prefer a Democratic Congress 59% to 35%. That 24-point gap is double the 12-point edge Democrats had in the same poll in 2024. And the reason isn’t complicated. It’s prices.
Why are Latino voters turning on Trump?
The cost of living is the top issue, named first by 33% and in the top two by 52%. On that issue, Trump’s numbers are the worst in the poll:
- 78% disapprove of how he’s handling the cost of living.
- 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy.
- 65% say his policies have hurt the economy.
- 63% say their household income is falling behind the cost of living.
In 2024, Latino voters trusted Republicans more on the economy by 4 points. Now they trust Democrats more by 21. That’s a 25-point swing on the exact issue Trump won them on.
What do Latino voters think about immigration enforcement?
They’re not against enforcement. 83% support deporting undocumented immigrants who’ve committed serious crimes. But only 37% support deporting everyone here illegally, and 66% say the administration’s enforcement has gone too far.
The poll also measured how enforcement is landing at home. 31% of Latino voters say they’ve started carrying ID because of ICE. 27% know someone who was deported or detained in the last two years. 18% have thought about leaving the country, and 17% have considered not voting in person.
“There is support for a certain level of immigration enforcement, but the Latino electorate believes it’s gone way too far,” said Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, the poll’s Republican pollster.
Does this mean Latino voters are becoming Democrats again?
Not exactly, and both pollsters said so. Republicans’ image has gotten much worse: 62% view the GOP negatively, up 16 points from 2024. But Democrats are slipping too, with 42% viewing them negatively, up 4 points.
Any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats.
Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, Hart Research Associates, the poll’s Democratic pollster
Roberts put it more simply: “What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier.” Motivation is up, too. 72% of Latino voters rate their interest in this election a 10 out of 10, compared with 54% in 2024.
The poll surveyed 800 Latino registered voters from September 21 to 28 in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.
The BeezLoop Take
This is what it looks like when a coalition built on one promise watches that promise go unkept. Latino voters who moved toward Trump in 2024 mostly did it over groceries, rent and gas. Gas topped $4 a gallon last week, and 63% say their income is falling behind. The poll’s numbers follow from that.
Republicans should notice something else. Latino voters didn’t turn against deportation. 83% back deporting people convicted of serious crimes. What they’re rejecting is an operation broad enough that nearly a third of them now carry ID in their own country.
Democrats shouldn’t celebrate yet. Their own pollster says the shift is about Trump, not them, and their favorability is falling too. A protest vote can disappear as fast as it shows up.
The open question is turnout. Interest is way up, but 17% have thought about not voting in person because of ICE. If those voters stay home, does any of this matter?
Also on BeezLoop: MAGA support for Trump fell nine points since spring, and the reason is on the gas station sign.
Sources: NBC News · Telemundo · CNN · NBC News (Kornacki video)
