Rep. María Elvira Salazar stood in front of the White House last month and told President Trump, in a TV ad, that he’s “gone too far” on immigration. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today,” the Miami Republican said. Less than three weeks before Election Day, that ad has become a test of whether Republicans can hold on to the Latino voters who swung toward Trump two years ago, NPR reported.
Trump’s answer was to share a post on Truth Social calling her a “back stabber.” Salazar told NPR she didn’t take it as an attack and that she’s since talked with the president.
Why did María Elvira Salazar break with Trump on immigration?
Because her voters are feeling it. Salazar represents Florida’s 27th District in Miami-Dade, which is more than 70% Latino. She’s a Cuban American in her third term, and for years she’s pushed the Dignity Act, which would protect from deportation immigrants who’ve become pillars of their communities in jobs like construction, hospitality and farming. She says Trump’s crackdown has gone well past deporting criminals. She told Trump “what my people are feeling,” she said.
It’s a real shift in Miami, where many Cuban and Venezuelan voters backed Trump. We wrote earlier this month about Cubans being deported in record numbers.
Are Latino voters turning against Republicans?
The polls say a lot of them are. Trump cut the Democratic margin with Latino voters to just 3 points in 2024, down from 25 points in 2020, according to Pew Research Center. Now an Equis Research survey of Latino registered voters finds they’d pick Democrats for Congress over Republicans 57% to 31%. Our look at the latest NBC/Telemundo poll found only 27% approve of Trump.
On the ground in Miami, the split is personal. “It’s Biden,” Republican voter Alejandro Torres said of higher costs. “It’s Trump,” said Ricardo Carracedo, who plans to vote Democratic. He isn’t buying Salazar’s turn: “I’m not going to vote for her, because at the last hour she’s defending Hispanics.”
Can Salazar hold her seat?
Probably, but it’s closer than it used to be. Her Democratic opponent is Eliott Rodriguez, a former TV journalist with Cuban roots who wants to fix the immigration court backlog and restore federal food aid. The Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Republican.”
The BeezLoop Take
Salazar deserves credit for saying out loud what a lot of Republicans in Latino districts are saying privately. It’s not easy to stand in front of the White House and tell this president he’s wrong. But her break came late, in the middle of a tough campaign, and voters like Carracedo noticed the timing.
The bigger story is the numbers. A 3-point margin in 2024 turning into a 26-point gap is the kind of swing that decides House majorities. If Republicans lose Latino voters, it won’t be because Democrats won them back. It’ll be because of what the people they voted for did.
The open question: will other Republicans in Latino-heavy districts follow Salazar before Nov. 3, or stay quiet and hope it doesn’t matter?
Sources: NPR · MS NOW (video)
