America’s primary care physician shortage has continued to deepen, with new data showing nearly half of rural U.S. counties now have five or fewer primary care doctors, including 199 counties with none at all, according to reporting on the latest county-level figures.
Where the Gap Is Worst
Ninety-seven percent of rural counties in the South and West have a documented shortage of primary care physicians, compared with 84% in the Midwest. Roughly 45% of rural counties nationwide have five or fewer primary care doctors serving their entire population.
A Longer-Term Decline
Research published earlier this year found the overall supply of primary care clinicians, especially physicians, has declined sharply over the past decade, making it increasingly difficult for patients in many areas, not just rural ones, to find a primary care doctor accepting new patients.
How Bad It’s Projected to Get
The Association of American Medical Colleges projects a national shortage of between 20,200 and 40,400 primary care physicians by 2036, part of a broader total physician shortfall the group estimates at 13,500 to 86,000. The Health Resources and Services Administration has separately projected total physician shortages of roughly 124,000 in 2027, growing past 187,000 by 2037.
Why the Shortage Persists
Medical school debt continues to push graduating doctors toward higher-paying specialties rather than primary care, while family practices contend with lower reimbursement rates and heavier administrative burdens than specialty practices, a combination that has kept primary care residency slots less competitive relative to specialty programs even as overall applicant numbers have grown.
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