She’s chasing history nobody has touched since Serena. The men’s draw is messier than it’s been in years. Here are the questions actually worth asking.
Let’s start with the number that should make every other contender nervous: 29 and 3. That’s Aryna Sabalenka’s match record at the US Open since 2021. She’s reached the semifinals or better in five straight editions and the final in three straight, and she arrives this year as the two-time defending champion chasing something no woman has done since Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014, a third consecutive US Open title. So, the obvious question first.
Can anyone actually beat Sabalenka in New York?
On paper, several players can. In practice, almost nobody has. Iga Świątek is working to rediscover her best level after a stretch that hasn’t matched her peak. Coco Gauff has the game and the home crowd behind her. Elena Rybakina’s serve is dangerous against anyone on a hard court. And there’s a genuine changing of the guard happening underneath the established names, with players like Mirra Andreeva pushing into the conversation and Amanda Anisimova chasing her first major. All of that is real. None of it changes the fact that Sabalenka has simply figured out how to win this specific tournament in a way her rivals haven’t solved yet.
What’s actually going on with the men’s draw?
More chaos than usual, which makes it more interesting than usual. Jannik Sinner arrives as the top seed and the reigning Wimbledon champion, having beaten Alexander Zverev in that final for his fifth major title, and he’s the deserved betting favorite heading into Flushing Meadows. But Carlos Alcaraz, the man who beat Sinner in last year’s US Open final, has missed two majors with a wrist injury and recently withdrew from the Cincinnati Open as well. He’s still entered and ranked third, but “healthy Alcaraz” and “entered Alcaraz” are not the same sentence right now, and that uncertainty hangs over the entire draw.
Aryna Sabalenka has reached the semifinals or better in five consecutive US Open editions and is chasing the first three-peat since Serena Williams.
, WTA tournament records, 2026
Who’s the American storyline to watch?
The men’s side, specifically. Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, and Sebastian Korda give the U.S. a genuinely deep group of contenders hoping to end the summer with a home champion, something that hasn’t happened in a while on the men’s side. None of them are the outright favorite, but a deep American run changes the entire atmosphere at Flushing Meadows, and that group has the tools to make it happen if the draw breaks their way.
And Djokovic?
Still around, still chasing more history, still the player nobody wants to face in a best-of-five if the moment gets big enough. Age and a stacked young field make him less of a default favorite than he once was, but writing him off before the tournament starts has been a bad bet for most of the last decade.
So here’s the real question heading into the tournament: is this the year someone finally solves Sabalenka, or does the chase for a three-peat come down to whether her body and her nerves hold up better than the field around her? We’ll know a lot more after the first week.
Quick Answers
Q: Who is the favorite to win the 2026 US Open women’s title?
A: Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, who is trying to become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012 to 2014) to win three consecutive US Open titles.
Q: Is Carlos Alcaraz playing the 2026 US Open?
A: He’s entered and ranked third, but has missed two majors with a wrist injury and withdrew from the Cincinnati Open, leaving his readiness in question.
Q: Who is the men’s betting favorite?
A: Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1 and reigning Wimbledon champion, who beat Alexander Zverev in this year’s Wimbledon final.
