Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran’s latest offer to end the war isn’t serious. He called Tehran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic” on Sunday, and said he doesn’t believe a breakthrough is close, Reuters reported via NBC News. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, defended the plan Monday as the most reasonable offer on the table.
Today President Trump and Vice President JD Vance meet with Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, who has been the main go-between and visited Tehran last week.
What is Iran offering to end the war?
Under Iran’s plan, the U.S. would end its blockade of Iranian ports, lift some sanctions and stop bombing. In return, Iran would stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Talks on Iran’s nuclear program and other sanctions would come later, and Iran says the whole thing could be squeezed into two days of talks.
The sticking point for Washington is the order of things. The U.S. wants the nuclear program on the table now, not after Iran gets what it wants. It’s the same gap we described when the U.S. hit Iran again with what Trump called “minor” strikes a few days ago.
Will the U.S. bomb Iran again?
Trump says probably not, as long as talks keep moving. He told CNN on Sunday that if Iran signs a “strong agreement,” it’s “highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary” to resume strikes. He also said the U.S. has identified targets it would hit if fighting resumes, including 38 bridges. Iranian state media reported another U.S. strike on Qeshm Island overnight.
Meanwhile the shipping lanes are getting more dangerous, not less. Attacks on tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz jumped sharply in October and have kept up at the highest rate since the war began in February, and on Sunday Iran said a tanker hit a mine east of the strait. That matters at the pump: the war has caused a global energy shortage, and a big share of the world’s oil moves through that strait.
The BeezLoop Take
Iran’s plan asks the U.S. to give up its leverage first and talk about the nuclear program later. Rubio isn’t wrong to be skeptical of that order. But calling it ridiculous and walking away isn’t a plan either, while tankers are hitting mines and Americans are paying for it at the pump.
Trump keeps saying more strikes are unlikely while the strikes keep coming. Qatar is the one player talking to both sides, and today’s meeting is worth more than another round of insults.
The open question: does Qatar come out of the Oval Office with a new order of steps both sides can live with, or is this war settling in for the winter?
Sources: NBC News / Reuters · The Independent (video)
