U.S. oil closed above $100 a barrel Friday for the first time in about a month, and the weekend brought more reasons for it to climb. Ships in the Strait of Hormuz kept getting hit, Iran claimed two supertankers struck mines, and overnight Ukraine launched one of the biggest drone attacks of the war, setting a St. Petersburg oil terminal on fire. Markets reopen Sunday evening.
U.S. crude settled at $101.41 on Friday, up 3.5% in a day, Latin Times reported. Brent, the global benchmark, briefly touched $110 for the first time since May.
Will gas prices go up again?
They might, but not overnight. For now, gas is actually drifting down. The national average was $4.30 a gallon Sunday, down from $4.47 a month ago, according to AAA. Diesel is $6.32. A year ago, gas was $3.04 and diesel was $3.64. Pump prices usually trail oil by a week or two, so if crude stays above $100, the slide at the pump could stall or reverse by early November, right around Election Day.
Diesel matters even if you don’t drive a truck. It moves groceries, packages and farm goods, so higher diesel shows up in what you pay for almost everything.
What’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz?
It depends who you ask. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels caught fire after hitting a mine on Saturday, and a second one lost power after a blast. Those claims haven’t been independently confirmed. The U.S. says it has cleared the strait of mines and that ships are being hit by Iranian projectiles instead. “The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, Al Jazeera reported.
Either way, ships are getting hit. The UK’s maritime security office counted at least 12 attacks in the week ending Oct. 16 and said many ships aren’t reporting at all. Oil flowing through the strait is running at about 68% of its prewar level. October has seen more ship attacks than any month since the Iran war began in February.
What did Ukraine hit in Russia?
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it shot down about 1,015 drones overnight Saturday into Sunday, one of the largest attacks of the war. Drones hit an oil terminal and an oil depot in St. Petersburg, plus a big data center, ABC News reported. The regional governor said one person was killed and five injured, and about 20,000 people near the city lost power. Ukraine had paused strikes on Russian refineries under Trump’s “energy ceasefire,” which Russia never honored. It’s now hitting Russia’s oil industry again.
The BeezLoop Take
Gas has been easing for a month, and three weeks before the midterms, that’s good news the White House needs. One weekend shows how fragile it is. Prices are being set by tanker attacks, drone strikes and claims nobody can verify.
The honest message to drivers: enjoy the dip, but don’t count on it. Until shipping through Hormuz gets back to normal, oil will swing with every headline, and families budgeting for the holidays should plan for prices that go up, not down.
The open question: if oil stays above $100, will gas climb back over $4.50 before Election Day?
Also on BeezLoop: Trump waived Russia sanctions two days before they took effect, and Trump’s diesel deal with Putin.
Sources: Latin Times · Al Jazeera · ABC News · AAA · MIRROR NOW (video)
