A recent poll in the Texas U.S. Senate race shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow 47%-45% edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, a margin that falls within the survey’s margin of error but that has still put Republicans on the defensive in a state the party hasn’t lost a statewide race in more than three decades.
The topline number alone would be close in any Senate race. What has drawn more attention from analysts is the composition underneath it. Paxton is winning white voters by only 14 points, a notably thin margin for a Texas Republican in a state where GOP presidential candidates have typically carried that group by 30 points or more. Talarico, meanwhile, is winning Hispanic voters by 19 points, a group Republicans have spent the last several cycles working to make inroads with.
Republicans go on offense
Rather than treat the numbers as a fluke, Republican operatives and allied media have leaned into attacking Talarico directly, resurfacing years-old social media posts in which he commented on race, gender, religion and immigration. More recently, GOP messaging has also zeroed in on Talarico’s response to reports of Chinese nationals attempting to purchase land across parts of Texas, an issue that has become a live wedge topic in rural and border-adjacent districts.
That kind of sustained opposition research push is itself a signal. Campaigns don’t typically spend resources digging through a state legislator’s old social media history unless they see a real threat worth neutralizing.
A close race, not a landslide
None of this amounts to Talarico being the favorite. A 2-point lead inside the margin of error means the race is, statistically, closer to a toss-up than a clear advantage for either side, and Paxton retains built-in strengths as a two-term statewide officeholder in a state that still leans Republican in most federal contests. What the numbers do suggest is that a race many assumed would be a comfortable Republican hold has turned into one worth watching closely through next year, with Talarico’s crossover appeal among white and Hispanic voters representing a real, if modest, opening rather than a full-blown GOP panic.
