Sixteen days before the midterms, most Americans think the country is headed the wrong way and blame President Trump for it. A new NBC News Decision Desk poll released Sunday puts Trump’s approval at 34% among all adults, the lowest of his second term, and 39% among registered voters. Registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, 55% to 45%, NBC News reported.
Seventy-one percent say the country is on the wrong track, the highest of this term. And 51% strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing, also a second-term high.
Why are voters so unhappy with Trump?
Money, mostly. The economy is the top issue at 31%. Only 27% approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living, and 29% approve of his handling of the Iran war. Forty-four percent say their finances are worse than a year ago, while just 18% say they’re better. Two-thirds call gas prices a serious problem, and majorities say they’ve changed what they buy at the grocery store and cut back on necessities.
His best issue is still border security and immigration, at 43% approval. Even there, he’s under water. Fifty-eight percent say his policies are hurting the country, and 52% say his administration is more corrupt than past ones.
Who is winning the midterms right now?
Democrats have the edge, but it isn’t locked up. On Meet the Press, NBC’s Steve Kornacki said the Democratic lead grows to 12 points among voters who say they’ll “definitely” vote. Republicans do better among people who aren’t sure they’ll show up, according to the transcript. That makes turnout the whole game.
Neither party is popular. Democrats are viewed favorably by 43% of adults and Republicans by 37%. Trump’s approval among Latinos is 31%, and among men under 30 it’s 28%, two groups that helped him win in 2024.
Do voters believe the $5,000 check promise?
Mostly no. Only 14% of adults expect to get the $5,000 Trump has promised if Republicans keep Congress, and 71% don’t. Even among Republicans, more don’t expect it (47%) than do (28%). We looked at what happened to Trump’s last two big check promises.
The poll surveyed 19,135 adults online from Sept. 28 to Oct. 12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.
The BeezLoop Take
A president at 34% with 71% saying the country’s on the wrong track is in real trouble, and it’s not hard to see why. People are paying $4.30 for gas, more for groceries and more on their loans, and the White House’s answer has been promises of checks that most voters, including many Republicans, don’t believe are coming.
Democrats shouldn’t celebrate yet, though. Their own party is underwater too, and the poll’s warning sign is turnout. A 10-point lead means nothing if the people who say they’re angry stay home.
The open question: will the 44% who say they’re worse off actually vote, and which party will they blame when they do?
Also on BeezLoop: No Kings turned its focus to early voting.
Sources: NBC News · Meet the Press transcript · NBC News (video)
